Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 17.952300 20.896902 24.121126 27.906591 32.221961 36.980654 42.617988
2024-10-20 12.652726 16.541825 21.251534 27.341281 34.969661 44.169017 56.058260
2024-10-27 9.247527 13.286738 18.590692 25.991885 35.966068 48.843084 66.609028
2024-11-03 8.004637 12.408846 18.577758 27.717604 40.753049 58.483518 84.184632
2024-11-10 7.245676 11.991434 19.015522 29.962572 46.331797 69.577122 104.662761
2024-11-17 6.176441 10.881594 18.219808 30.213483 48.954690 76.646788 120.018992
2024-11-24 5.191247 9.708843 17.113119 29.767672 50.368229 81.943967 133.102857
2024-12-01 4.321496 8.563604 15.856423 28.862781 50.871480 85.784607 144.163349
2024-12-08 3.748822 7.836328 15.177937 28.788348 52.637244 91.651317 158.744304
2024-12-15 3.311658 7.281254 14.710754 28.990810 54.834913 98.326043 175.063215
2024-12-22 2.705277 6.285254 13.291507 27.291899 53.519668 99.001402 181.454641
2024-12-29 2.490157 6.052074 13.280364 28.184242 56.886679 107.862706 202.279721
2025-01-05 2.324986 5.924466 13.510887 29.670080 61.689119 119.965065 230.291576
2025-01-12 1.979679 5.334669 12.727248 29.081598 62.573342 125.271243 246.981531
2025-01-19 1.623969 4.643052 11.613758 27.656258 61.649427 127.156163 257.620546
2025-01-26 1.552320 4.637834 12.012022 29.481759 67.430143 142.108550 293.612394
2025-02-02 1.518501 4.723679 12.628898 31.855257 74.566183 160.215249 336.872843
2025-02-09 1.359981 4.440405 12.328621 32.120482 77.264808 169.816841 364.437580
2025-02-16 1.183618 4.066905 11.746448 31.649262 78.304103 176.152830 386.026737
2025-02-23 1.009789 3.658697 11.006416 30.692678 78.142965 179.981028 402.822864
2025-03-02 0.897018 3.410922 10.644992 30.613986 79.957399 188.050012 428.800227
2025-03-09 0.809093 3.222050 10.412305 30.828031 82.467681 197.778691 458.876519
2025-03-16 0.664403 2.803445 9.460307 29.031678 79.976495 196.431207 465.466534